Oil & Gas

GasBuddy has warned that U.S. gasoline prices could reach a record level for this point in the calendar year, despite a recent pullback in crude oil prices. According to Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy, geopolitical tensions continue to drive fuel market volatility. While optimisssible U.S.-Iran agreement briefly eased oil prices, ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have reduced refining output m over a poand kept gasoline prices under upward pressure. He noted that developments in either the Middle East or Ukraine could quickly alter the outlook.

GasBuddy data showed the national average gasoline price at $4.05 per gallon, down 0.8 cents from the previous week but up 28.5 cents from a month earlier and 93.6 cents higher than a year ago. The most common pump price was $3.69 per gallon, while the median price stood at $3.89 per gallon. Texas, Indiana, and Mississippi recorded the lowest average prices, whereas California, Hawaii, and Washington had the highest. Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana experienced the largest weekly price increases.

BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, has raised its U.S. gasoline price forecasts due to worsening U.S.-Iran relations and heightened risks of supply disruptions in the Middle East. The firm increased its 2026 forecast by 22% to $2.90 per gallon and raised its 2027 forecast to $2.30 per gallon, citing tighter gasoline inventories, stronger refining margins, and the possibility of prolonged disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts expect gasoline prices to remain elevated over the next three to six months, with risks still tilted toward further increases if geopolitical tensions escalate.

Meanwhile, AAA reported the U.S. average regular gasoline price at $4.089 per gallon as of August 4, slightly below the previous week's level but well above prices recorded a month and a year earlier. Despite recent increases, gasoline prices remain below the record highs reached in 2022. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump expressed confidence that oil and gasoline prices would fall sharply once tensions with Iran were resolved, underscoring the significant influence of geopolitical developments on global energy markets.