Oil & Gas

The United States is on track to reach a new milestone in crude exports, with shipments expected to average 5.44 million barrels per day this month, according to data from Kpler cited by Reuters analyst Clyde Russell. Projections indicate further growth in May, with daily exports anticipated to climb slightly higher to 5.48 million barrels.

A significant share of these exports is being directed toward Asia, a region that has been particularly affected by disruptions in Gulf oil supplies. Kpler’s data shows that U.S. shipments to Asia are averaging 2.27 million barrels per day in April, with a notable jump forecast for May, when volumes could rise to 3.29 million barrels daily.

This marks a sharp increase compared to earlier in the year. In January, U.S. crude exports to Asia stood at just 1.11 million barrels per day, followed by 1.21 million in February. The recent surge highlights how rapidly U.S. producers are stepping in to fill part of the supply gap created by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Despite this growth, the broader picture for Asia remains challenging. Total crude imports into the region are expected to drop to 14.8 million barrels per day in April, a steep decline from 18.63 million in March and significantly below February’s 24.87 million. Analysts caution that the shortfall is too large to be fully offset by U.S. supply or other alternatives, and cannot be covered by reserves alone. As a result, Asian economies may face sustained pressure, a situation mirrored in refined products, where U.S. exports—at 386,000 barrels per day—remain far below pre-crisis Gulf supply levels of around 1.5 million.